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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The ramification is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their earnings report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, prior to the required economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has actually undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically happen prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to compromise. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and information technology assets. The ETF provides direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.